A flask for Friday. New stock in two weeks

Imagine you run an online shop selling travel and leisure products. On Tuesday, a customer sends a link to a vacuum flask:

Hello! Could you deliver this one by Thursday? We’re leaving on Friday and I’d like to take it with us.

She has already found a model she likes. She has opened the photographs and checked the price. Now she needs to know whether it will arrive in time.

You check the stock. The last flask of this model has already been dispatched. You ask the supplier about timing: the next batch will only be ready for you to send to customers in two weeks.

You call her back:

— Hello, you messaged about the blue flask. I’ve checked and, unfortunately, we can’t get it to you by Thursday. It’s out of stock and we’re expecting a delivery in two weeks.

— Oh, no, that won’t work. I’ll keep looking. Maybe someone else has it.

The conversation ends there. You can offer to let her know when it arrives, but her trip is this Friday.

Now she is choosing who can deliver in time

A few minutes ago, the customer was comparing flasks. Now she is looking for a shop that can deliver her chosen product before the trip.

You may have good photographs, a clear description and the right price. But this order comes down to timing. Even a discount cannot move Friday.

After the call, you open this model’s order history. It sold regularly. It has run out, and replenishment is still two weeks away.

It is a familiar trap: you make sure new products appear on the website, but only check stock of proven sellers after someone asks ‘do you have it?’ By then, the buyer needs an answer now.

Let’s look at what you can check sooner.

How much of the recorded stock can you actually send?

Start with a few models that people buy regularly. Open their stock records and compare them with what is actually on the shelves.

Boxes alone do not mean the product is available for a new order. Some may already be paid for and awaiting dispatch. One unit may be a return that has not yet been checked. Sometimes the item is on the shelf but has not been entered into the system, so the website shows it as unavailable.

For each model, find out how many usable units remain after reservations for existing orders. Check that against the product page and the lead time the customer sees.

If you use your supplier’s stock, check their availability too. Also confirm how long it takes from placing your order until you can send the item to your customer. The date a batch reaches the supplier is only part of that journey.

Instead of ‘I think it’s in stock’, you now have an answer: how many you can sell today and when the next batch will be available.

Is eight on the shelf a lot or a little?

Now let’s go back a step, to when the flasks had not yet run out.

Take some illustrative figures. Over four complete weeks, you sold 6, 7, 5 and 6 flasks of one model. The product was available throughout those weeks. That is 24 in total, or an average of 6 per week.

Suppose 8 are left for new orders. After you order from the supplier, the next batch will be ready to send to customers in two weeks. No other confirmed shipments are on their way.

Illustrative example

Compare available stock with the wait for replenishment

Sales over four complete weeks · product available throughout

Week 1

6 units

Week 2

7 units

Week 3

5 units

Week 4

6 units

24 units in total · an average of 6 units per week

If sales continue at the same pace

6 units/week×2 weeks=12 units

Until the next batch is ready to send to customers.

8available now

4shortfall in this scenario

No earlier replenishment is expected. The gap is not an order quantity.

If sales stay at six per week, you will need 12 units during the wait. You have 8 available. The difference is 4 flasks, which you would be unable to supply before replenishment in this scenario.

Eight boxes look like a stock reserve. But alongside the lead time, you can see why waiting until the last one sells is already too late.

Four is the possible gap in this example, not a ready-made purchase quantity. A new order also needs to account for sales after the batch arrives, the next opportunity to replenish and the money you are prepared to invest in stock.

Four weeks is also too little to set stock levels for a whole year. Look at a longer history: were there spikes, discounts or the start of a season? Mark days without stock separately. No sales on those days tells you nothing about how many people wanted to buy.

Check previous delivery times too. If the supplier promises two weeks but has taken longer several times, account for that before the next purchase.

Do not fill the warehouse with every new product at once

After a call like this, it is tempting to decide you simply need more of everything. But your buying budget and storage space are limited.

A model with repeated sales has a history to work from. A new item does not yet have one. Buy a large batch of every new product in advance and some of your money may remain tied up for a long time in items that attract few enquiries.

For untested models, consider using the supplier’s stock if their terms let you fulfil orders within a lead time customers will accept. First find out what people order and how often, then decide which items to hold yourself.

But ‘in stock with supplier’ is no substitute for checking. The supplier can run out too. Confirm availability and timing before promising delivery to someone planning a trip.

Check stock while there is still something to send

In this story, you start with the flask you had to turn the customer away over. Put its sales history, available stock, expected deliveries and actual replenishment lead time in one place.

Then agree with whoever handles purchasing: at what stock level you will contact the supplier again, who checks it and who confirms the order. Match the frequency of checks to the pace of sales so that all available stock cannot disappear between checks.

When the remaining stock approaches the quantity you normally sell during the replenishment lead time, replenishment already needs attention. Before placing a new order, check which batches are already confirmed and when they will be ready to dispatch to customers. Account for these arrivals by date so you do not order the same replenishment twice. If demand varies sharply or deliveries are late, you will need extra stock; work out how much from your own history and purchasing capacity.

Separately, watch what the website promises. Your stock, the supplier’s stock and delivery time to the customer should give people a clear answer before payment.

Start with one popular model. Check how many you can send today and whether that will last until the next batch. A flask arriving in two weeks will not help the customer who leaves on Friday. And it is more useful for you to discover that gap before she calls.